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Forex Indonesia

Senin, 14 Januari 2013


TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Technical and Fundamental analysis are two types of Forex trading types. Learning how to use these types of trading is a necessary step for any Forex Trader. In this article we will present a description of each one, we want to open a door for future research on your schedule. Technical analysis is a discipline dedicated to predict future currency prices based on information contained from the past market data. Charles Dow (Founder of The Wall Street Journal and the Dow Jones & Company) was a pioneer in technical analysis in the 19th Century, he strongly believed in the ability of Data to predict the future. Technical analysis means, using the Chart Indicators available on your MetaTrader 4 Forex Software. This type of trading uses mathematical models, taking information from the prices and volume traded in the past; one of the most important aspects here is, to determine how far into the past shall we enquire to predict the future, how much time market conditions remain constant: Prices from one year or one day ago will help us to predict actual and future prices? Remember that each Forex Indicator is the graphical expression of a mathematical model: you don`t have to be an expert mathematician to be a good Technical trader, you just need some time of strict research to understand each tool in your Forex MetaTrader Tradeview. Fundamental analysis is a discipline based in anticipating currency price trends, using the main Economical and Political events on each country for this purpose. If a fundamental event affects in a positive way the wealth of any country, we suppose that the currency traded in Forex for that country will be Appreciated (Price Increase) against the others. If a fundamental event affects in a negative way the wealth of any country, we suppose that the currency traded in Forex for that country will be Depreciated (Price Decrease) against the others. For instance if the USA Department of Labor announces a decrease in the unemployment rate, this means that the USA Economy is on a great moment and we will expect an increase on the relative price of the Dollar. It is just a simple example that will help you understand this basic idea, you should be aware of making this simple analysis without considering other economical and political forces that affect currency prices in different times. Some good sources to find daily, fundamental currency news are: Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Economist. A Forex Trader must know both types of trading types and use them frequently. You should not focus yourself in just one of them, imagine each type as one of your eyes, usually you use both! Sumber:


SIMPLE AND EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGES Simple and exponential moving averages are two mathematical tools used in Technical Analysis for Currency Trading with the purpose of predicting future values of Forex prices. A simple moving average is the sum of past values of a specific currency pair, divided in the amount of prices used; each trader chooses the appropriate number of prices to be included in the algorithm. For instance: suppose that we are interested in predicting the future price of the EUR USD for tomorrow and we have prices for the previous 5 days: [1.44 , 1.38 , 1.41 , 1.46 , 1.48] so the simple moving average is: (1.44 + 1.38 + 1.41 + 1.46 + 1.48)/5  = 1.434 We say that we expect that the price of tomorrow will be 1.434, unfortunately expecting does not necessarily mean happening! 1.434 is just the price for tomorrow in which we have a higher level of certainty. An exponential moving average is the sum of weighted past values of a specific currency pair, divided in the amount of prices used. We weight each value according with the level of importance we perceive on each value, multiplying each price for a constant number that represents that importance. For instance: with same values in the last paragraph, we want to predict the future price of the EUR USD for tomorrow, but we think that the price of yesterday is more important for the prediction than the price of the day before yesterday and this concept applies for the last periods. As in the simple moving average, you must think about the number of last periods that you want to add in predictions. Do not worry about the calculation of the simple and exponential moving average; fortunately your Forex Trading Platform will calculate it for yourself! Sumber: